Italian Scientists Jailed In Quake Trial

Why Experts Can't Predict A Quake

Updated: 5:23pm UK, Monday 22 October 2012

By Thomas Moore, Health Correspondent

Three days before the L'Aquila earthquake a colony of common toads 50 miles away seemed to sense danger.

Every breeding pair fled, mystifying researchers who had been studying the toads.

Perhaps it was gases seeping from the Earth's crust that alerted them. Or maybe it was a build-up of charged particles in the atmosphere.

The truth is that earthquake scientists can't even come close to the toad's predictive powers.

They know where earthquakes are likely to happen - the Earth's tectonic plates and fault zones are reasonably well mapped. But they don't know when.

The best they can currently do is estimate the probability of a future quake in a particular area by studying the frequency and magnitude of tremors in the past.

So, for example, the US Geological Survey calculates that there is 62% chance of a strong earthquake striking San Francisco in the next 30 years. 

But they can't hazard a guess on the likelihood of it happening next year. Even that is too narrow a time-frame.

Seismologists are using increasingly sophisticated equipment to monitor the movement of rocks around fault lines in the hope of spotting pressure points.

Researchers in California are developing a system that could give "between a few seconds and tens of seconds" warning of an earthquake. But that's barely enough time to alert the public, let alone to take cover.

Other research teams are using satellites to study the upper atmosphere for electrical disturbances that might signal a quake.

They believe that when rocks compress they generate an electrical current between the Earth's crust and the atmosphere. But that work is still on-going.

So for now nature seems to do it better. Snakes, deep-sea fish, birds and some mammals have been reported to act strangely ahead of an earthquake.

If scientists could tune in to whatever animals can detect, they might finally be able to give an accurate warning of an imminent earthquake.

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Lance Armstrong: UCI Upholds Usada Life Ban

Lance Armstrong has been banned for life and stripped of his seven Tour de France titles over his role in "the most sophisticated doping programme sport has ever seen".

The International Cycling Union (UCI) said it would not appeal the decision taken by the United States Anti-Doping Agency (Usada), which had compiled a damning 1,000-page dossier detailing the allegations.

"Lance Armstrong has no place in cycling," UCI president Pat McQuaid told a press conference.

"I was sickened by what I read in the Usada report. I'm sorry that we couldn't catch every damn one of them and throw them out of the sport at the time.

"Cycling has a future. This is not the first time cycling has reached a crossroads or that it has had to begin anew."

UCI president Pat McQuaid arrives at the press conference

The move prompted Oakley to follow Armstrong's other major sponsors in cutting their ties with the 41-year-old.

It issued a statement, saying: "When Lance joined our family many years ago, he was a symbol of possibility.

"We are deeply saddened by the outcome, but look forward with hope to athletes and teams of the future who will rekindle that inspiration by racing clean, fair and honest."

Tour de France director Christian Prudhomme had said the race would go along with whatever cycling's governing body decided and will have no official winners for the years of Armstrong's consecutive wins, from 1999-2005.

Armstrong had previously chosen not to contest the Usada charges, prompting the agency to propose his punishment pending confirmation from cycling's world governing body.

Former team-mates of Armstrong, at his US Postal and Discovery Channel teams, were given reduced bans by the American authorities after testifying against him.

Armstrong's sporting reputation as the cancer survivor who fought back to win cycling's most gruelling and celebrated race has been shattered since the revelations, leading to sponsors leaving him in droves.

Nike became the most high-profile sponsor to abandon the Texan, saying he had misled the firm for more than a decade and citing "seemingly insurmountable" evidence against him.

Lance Armstrong addresses participants at the Livestrong Challenge Ride

The allegations also saw Armstrong step down as chairman of the charity he formed, Livestrong, which raised hundreds of millions of dollars for people affected by cancer.

On the eve of the UCI decision, Armstrong spoke for about 90 seconds to a 4,300 cyclists at the Livestrong Challenge charity benefit, a 100-mile (160km) race in his hometown of Austin, Texas.

"I've been better, but I've also been worse," he said.

"Obviously, it has been an interesting and difficult couple of weeks."

Mr McQuaid succeeded Hein Verbruggen as president of world cycling after Armstrong's seventh and final Tour victory in 2005 and is credited with boosting the body's anti-doping programme - notably with the pioneering blood passport programme.

The Irishman was under pressure to answer how Armstrong and his teams managed to dope for so long without being detected. But he rejected calls to quit.

Former UCI officials have denied claims they helped cover up Armstrong's positive drug tests.

The Usada report said Armstrong was at the heart of "the most sophisticated, professionalised and successful doping programme that sport has ever seen".

It stated: "He was not just a part of the doping culture on his team. He enforced and re-enforced it."

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Terror Suspects 'Planned Eight Suicide Bombs'

Three terrorist plotters led a plan to set off eight suicide bombs which could have been bigger than the July 7 London attacks, a court has heard.

Irfan Naseer, 31, and Irfan Khalid and Ashik Ali, both 27, are accused of being "central figures" in the extremist plot, jurors at Woolwich Crown Court were told.

Prosecutor Brian Altman QC said: "The police successfully disrupted a plan to commit an act or acts of terrorism on a scale potentially greater than the London bombings in July 2005 had it been allowed to run its course.

"The defendants were proposing to detonate up to eight rucksack bombs in a suicide attack and/or to detonate bombs on timers in crowded areas in order to cause mass deaths and casualties."

The bombings would have dwarfed those during the July 7 attacks in London

All the men are accused of engaging in conduct in preparation of terrorist acts, which they deny.

Naseer is accused of five counts of the offence, Khalid four and Ali three, all between Christmas Day, 2010, and September 19, 2011.

The charges are alleged to have included planning a bombing campaign, collecting money for terrorism and recruiting others for terrorism.

Nasser and Khalid are also accused of travelling to Pakistan for training in terrorism, and it is alleged that Naseer also helped others to travel to the country for the same purpose.

In total, 11 men of Pakistani and Bangladeshi origin and one woman were arrested over the alleged plot.

Mr Altman told the jury that the three defendants were "central figures" in the plot, and said they are "jihadists" and "senior members of a home-grown terror cell".

The group are also accused of making bogus charity collections in Birmingham for Muslim Aid.

It is alleged that the group sent four other local men to Pakistan to receive terrorist training - Naweed Ali, 25, and Ishaaq Hussain, Khobaib Hussain and Shahid Khan, all 20.

They are also accused of persuading another two to take part in their plot rather than fighting abroad - Mohammed Rizwan, 33, and Bahader Ali, 29.

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Ben Needham's Mother Makes Emotional Plea

By Mike McCarthy, North of England Correspondent

The mother of Ben Needham has made an emotional appeal for help in finding her son who went missing 21 years ago on the Greek island of Kos.

Shaking uncontrollably, Kerry Needham said she was overwhelmed by the commitment of the islanders to the renewed search for Ben.

The 21-month-old Sheffield boy disappeared from a remote spot next to a farmhouse that his grandfather Eddie was renovating.

Ms Needham said she had flown to the island to offer her support to the joint British-Greek operation and to be on standby should anything significant emerge from the reinvestigation.

Ben went missing in 1991

Clinging to her mother Christine throughout the televised statement, she said: "Coming to the island knowing the search experts are looking for my son was heart-wrenching, but I believe that my son Ben is alive and out there somewhere.

"But I understand this search has to be done. I am still determined to find my son and I make a plea to anyone who has been watching this to come forward and to let me know what happened to Ben and end my family's pain and suffering."

Taking a deep breath she added: "I will never give up the search until I find out what happened to Ben.

"Myself and my family are stronger than ever now and we will do whatever it takes to find Ben and let him know the truth of who he is."

Following the appeal, Ms Needham was led away with a family liaison officer from South Yorkshire Police.

Earlier, the head of the British team, Detective Superintendent Matt Fenwick, said the search was progressing well and co-operation between the British and Greek teams was "second to none".

Unpaid search specialists in Kos are also helping the hunt

Olive and lemon groves surrounding the farmhouse are being examined and experts have started to use ground-penetrating radar equipment to take readings below ground.

Unpaid search specialists in Kos are also helping. 

Ms Needham said: "When I was told how many people had given up their time searching every day in this heat it overwhelms me and confirms what wonderful people live here on this island."

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Goalkeeper Assault: Man Jailed For 16 Weeks

A football fan has been jailed for four months after he admitted assaulting Sheffield Wednesday goalkeeper Chris Kirkland.

Aaron Cawley, from Cheltenham, Gloucestershire, also pleaded guilty to invading the pitch during the Championship match against Leeds United on Friday night.

Sheffield Magistrates Court heard the unemployed 21-year-old was so drunk he could not remember the attack.

He later emailed Sky Sports, which had been broadcasting the game live, and the police, saying: "It was a disgrace and I'm embarrassed by my actions."

Cawley, who has supported Leeds United all his life and went to every home and away game, told police he had drank a number of cans of Stella Artois lager and three-quarters of a litre of vodka before arriving in Sheffield for the match.

Chris Kirkland said he was "shocked" by the attack

Once in the city, he drank up to 10 pints of cider.

Kirkland was struck in the face during the 1-1 draw at Wednesday's Hillsborough stadium.

The home goalkeeper, who has played for England, fell to ground and required treatment but was able to finish the game.

"I was sore and ... really shocked at what had happened and it was a strange feeling because of all the adrenalin you feel in such a big match anyway," he told the club's official website.

"It was scary. I thought of my family watching something like that and it was not a nice feeling.

"I would like to thank everyone from the football world for their messages of support."

Cawley appeared in the dock wearing a blue t-shirt which left an "LUFC" tattoo clearly visible on his neck and a Leeds United club crest on his right arm.

As well as a prison sentence, he was given a six-year football banning order, requiring him to stay at least a mile away from any stadium at which Leeds United is playing.

Cawley has been the subject of two banning orders in the past and has breached these four times, the court was told.

In a statement issued after the game, Leeds United said: "We would like to publicly apologise for and condemn the actions of the fan who came onto the pitch at Hillsborough.

"There is no place for that type of behaviour and the majority of Leeds United fans will be ashamed of his actions."

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Murder Accused Told Vicar 'Die And Hurry Up'

A homeless man accused of murdering a vicar told his victim to "die and hurry up" after fatally stabbing him, a court has been told.

Stephen Farrow, 48, is on trial over the death of Rev John Suddards at his vicarage in Thornbury, near Bristol, in February.

He was found by workmen with several stab wounds, including one which severed his jugular vein and another which pierced his heart.

Bristol Crown Court heard how Farrow gave a graphic account of how he killed the vicar during two assessments by Dr Tim Rogers, a consultant forensic psychiatrist.

"It was there in my head. I spent five days preparing when to go, what buses to catch," Farrow said, according to notes taken by Dr Rogers which he read to the court.

"I watched a man die. I have never seen that before - life ebbing away.

"It was always like it was meant to happen. He didn't fight, argue or nothing. My head wasn't there. I kicked the reverend to keep him down."

Dr Rogers recalled Farrow saying that when the vicar told him he was dying, he replied: "Die and hurry up."

The psychiatrist told the court how Farrow admitted watching DVDs and drinking beer at the vicarage after Rev Suddards' death.

"I find it abnormal in the extreme that anyone could do what they had done and sit in that person's home and behave in an entirely calm way," he said.

Dr Rogers said he does not believe Farrow is mentally ill, although he has all the "hallmarks of a psychopath".

"There have been times in his life that he may have been experiencing mental illness because of the drugs he was using," he added.

Farrow, of no fixed address, was not present in court after refusing to leave the prison in Worcestershire where he is being held.

Jurors were told he will not be giving evidence in his defence.

Farrow denies murdering Rev Suddards, 59, but admits manslaughter on the grounds of diminished responsibility.

He denies murdering retired teacher Betty Yates, 77, in Bewdley, Worcestershire, the previous month, but has pleaded guilty to a separate charge of a burglary of a cottage in Thornbury over the festive period.

The trial continues.

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Frankie Boyle Wins £54,650 Libel Case

Frankie Boyle has won £54,650 in damages after a High Court jury concluded that he had been libelled by the Daily Mirror.

Boyle, aged 40, from Glasgow, claimed that the Daily Mirror defamed him by describing him as racist and saying he had been "forced to quit" BBC panel show Mock The Week.

Daily Mirror publisher Mirror Group Newspapers had defended the article, which was published on July 19, 2011, claiming the "racist" description was either true or "honest comment on a matter of public interest".

But Boyle said the newspaper had "misunderstood" his jokes.

He told the High Court that characters he played might express racist views, but he did not, adding that he actively campaigned against racism and parodied racists.

The publisher had also said the words "forced to quit" did not mean that Boyle had been sacked and were not defamatory.

Jurors ruled in favour of Boyle after a week-long trial in London.

The comedian said during the trial that he would give any damages to charity.

Frankie Boyle responded to the court's decision on Twitter

He said he was "very happy" as he left court, ana his representative said he would make any further comments on Twitter.

Boyle has upset glamour model Katie Price over comments about her disabled son and also comments about gold medal swimmer Rebecca Adlington in the past.

His counsel David Sherborne admitted that his humour was deliberately challenging, and he would not have minded if his material had been called vile, tasteless or offensive, because that went with the territory, but he did object to being called a racist.

In a series of tweets the comedian wrote that he was "very happy" with the outcome.

"I'm very happy with the jury's decision and their unanimous rejection of the Mirror's allegation that I am a racist," he tweeted.

"Racism is still a very serious problem in society which is why I've made a point of always being anti-racist in my life and work and that's why I brought this action.

"I am giving my damages to charity."

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Johannesburg Prison Van Blast Kills Five

At least five prisoners have been killed and seven injured after an explosion hit a van carrying convicts in South Africa.

Police brigadier Neville Malila told Talk Radio 702: "There was an explosion on the vehicle. The explosive device that was used is still unknown.

He said two prisoners had been killed and 15 injured, but an emergency services worker later told Reuters news agency that four prisoners had died at the scene and one had died on the way to hospital.

Malila said the van had been taking a total of 36 prisoners to a jail in southern Johannesburg.

It was not immediately clear if the explosion was part of an escape attempt. Malila said two of the prisoners had fled after the blast but were later caught.

More follows...

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BBC Editor 'Steps Aside' Over Savile Scandal

The Newsnight editor who dropped an investigation into claims Sir Jimmy Savile sexually abused people "is stepping aside", the BBC has said.

Peter Rippon, who says he dropped the report for editorial reasons, will leave his role with "immediate effect" while an independent review into the BBC's treatment of the Savile crisis is carried out.

The corporation has also published corrections to a blog post by Mr Rippon, which had aimed to explain his decision to drop the programme's investigation into allegations of sexual abuse by the late presenter.

In a statement, the BBC described the inaccuracies as "deeply concerning".

It said: "It is apparent from information supplied by the Newsnight editor and programme team - that the explanation in a blog by the editor of his decision to drop the programme's investigation is inaccurate or incomplete in some respects."

It said, while the blog insisted Newsnight had no evidence against the BBC, there were some allegations of abusive conduct on BBC premises.

The blog also claimed all the women spoken to by the programme had contacted the police and that Newsnight had no new evidence that would have helped the police. But the BBC now says, in some cases, women had not spoken to the police and the police were not aware of all the allegations.

Questions over how director-general George Entwistle has handled the crisis

Prime Minister David Cameron has called the developments "disturbing", saying: He said: "The nation is appalled, we're all appalled, by the allegations of what Jimmy Savile did and they seem to get worse by the day."

A documentary is to lift the lid on the extent to which senior managers of the corporation were aware of the Savile abuse claims.

A special edition of Panorama reveals fresh evidence about what the BBC knew of Savile's decades of child abuse and its investigation into why Newsnight spiked its probe into the scandal, sparking allegations of a cover-up.

The BBC flagship programme, which airs tonight, examines why corporation chiefs - including the director-general - gave different explanations why Newsnight was dropped and what it was about.

Mr Rippon maintains the piece - which was due to run last December - was pulled for editorial reasons, and not because the potentially damaging revelations coincided with a planned tribute to the star.

But the hour-long documentary will hear from Newsnight producer Meirion Jones and reporter Liz MacKean, who both claim they had interviewed at least four alleged victims of Savile - and confirmed with Surrey Police that officers had investigated sex abuse complaints against the Jim'll Fix It star in 2007.

The journalists say that, when they told bosses the Crown Prosecution Service did not charge Savile because of insufficient evidence, they were told to end the investigation - and the show was withdrawn.

BBC director-general George Entwistle said it would be "inappropriate" for him to comment ahead of the broadcast, as he has not yet seen the programme. The programme also calls into question Mr Entwistle's handling of the crisis in the days after it broke.

Police say they have identified more than 200 potential victims

The abuse stories about Savile only fully emerged after ITV broadcast a documentary at the start of this month - sparking controversy at the BBC over losing its scoop and leading to the cover-up allegations.

John Whittingdale, chairman of the Commons Culture, Media and Sport Committee, which will take evidence from Mr Entwistle on Tuesday, said they would want to know why he did not seek more information about the Newsnight investigation.

Mr Whittingdale said the most important question was why the Newsnight segment was dropped. He told Sky News: "Whilst Panorama say there is no evidence the editor was leant on from outside, the explanations originally given look very thin today."

Panorama said it has failed to find evidence of a "BBC cover-up" over the Newsnight decision.

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North Sea Rescue As Helicopter Ditches

All 19 people on board a helicopter which ditched in the North Sea have been safely accounted for, say rescuers.

Sky News Scotland Correspondent James Matthews said the helicopter was carrying rig workers and made a controlled ditching between Orkney and Shetland, west of Fair Isle.

"The pilot came down low and sent out a Mayday before hitting the water," he said.

Three lifeboats were launched, from Kirkwall, Orkne, and Aith and Lerwick in Shetland, the RNLI said.

Three helicopters were also involved in the search, co-ordinated by Shetland Coastguard. Other vessels were on the scene, 14 miles west of Fair Isle.

The helicopter was carrying an oil crew change, the coastguard said. It is not known if there are any casualties.

A statement from CHC Helicopter said: "We can confirm that there has been an incident involving one of our aircraft in the North Sea, approximately 32 miles south-west of Shetland. Exact details of the incident, which happened at approximately 3.30pm are not yet known."

More to follow...

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