Fasten Seatbelts For More Turbulence
Updated: 11:49am UK, Tuesday 09 April 2013
Flights are set to become bumpier in the future as passengers experience more turbulence because of global warming, British scientists have warned.
Light turbulence shakes the plane, but more severe episodes can injure passengers and cause structural damage to aircraft, costing an estimated £100m a year.
A rise in turbulence would make air travel more uncomfortable and increase the risks to passengers and crew.
And detours to avoid strong patches of turbulence would lead to longer journey times, more fuel consumption and airport delays which would ultimately drive up prices, the experts said.
Climate change is not only heating up the Earth's surface but it is also destabilising the winds six miles above the planet where planes fly, the researchers at the universities of Reading and East Anglia said.
Most air passengers have probably experienced turbulence which is linked to atmospheric jet streams that are projected to strengthen with climate change.
Turbulence, which can happen without warning, is mainly caused by vertical airflow - up-draughts and down-draughts near clouds and thunderstorms.
The scientists said turbulence will be stronger and occur more often if carbon dioxide emissions double by 2050 as the International Energy Agency forecasts.
Carbon dioxide is one of the most potent greenhouse gases blamed for global warming.
Increasing emissions raise the global average temperature, heating up the lower atmosphere.
However, warming also changes the atmosphere six miles above ground level, making it more unstable for planes, said Paul Williams at the University of Reading and co-author of the report.
The scientists focused on the North Atlantic flight corridor - where 600 planes travel between Europe and North America each day - using computer simulations to examine the effects of climate change on conditions there.
They found that the chances of encountering significant turbulence by the middle of the century will increase by between 40 and 170%, with the most likely outcome being a doubling of airspace containing significant turbulence.
The average strength of turbulence would also increase by between 10 and 40%.
"Aviation is partly responsible for changing the climate in the first place. It is ironic that the climate looks set to exact its revenge by creating a more turbulent atmosphere for flying," Mr Williams said.
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